Discussion:
[teampractices] IT projects almost as prone to overruns as the Olympics
Joel Aufrecht
2016-08-15 18:24:04 UTC
Permalink
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the
Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)

(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)



*-- Joel Aufrecht*
Team Practices Group
Wikimedia Foundation
Max Binder
2016-08-15 18:29:48 UTC
Permalink
....relative to those other projects, yea. That said, 50 percent ain't
nothing. :)
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at
the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)
*-- Joel Aufrecht*
Team Practices Group
Wikimedia Foundation
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https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
Arthur Richards
2016-08-15 18:33:30 UTC
Permalink
Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at
the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)
​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
excluded larger projects (eg infrastructure):

The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all Olympics-related
costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
--
Arthur Richards
Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
Team Practices Group <https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
[[User:Awjrichards]]
IRC: awjr
+1-415-839-6885 x6687
Kevin Smith
2016-08-15 20:15:43 UTC
Permalink
I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
*international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
unpredictability, right?

The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.


Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
Post by Arthur Richards
Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at
the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)
​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all Olympics-related
costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
--
Arthur Richards
Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
Team Practices Group <https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
[[User:Awjrichards]]
IRC: awjr
+1-415-839-6885 x6687
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
Grace Gellerman
2016-08-15 21:25:29 UTC
Permalink
Thanks, Joel!

For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
Post by Kevin Smith
I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
*international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
unpredictability, right?
The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
Post by Arthur Richards
Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at
the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)
​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
--
Arthur Richards
Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
Team Practices Group
<https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
[[User:Awjrichards]]
IRC: awjr
+1-415-839-6885 x6687
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
Max Binder
2016-08-15 22:30:33 UTC
Permalink
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/
Post by Grace Gellerman
Thanks, Joel!
For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
Post by Kevin Smith
I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
*international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
unpredictability, right?
The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <
Post by Arthur Richards
Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at
the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)
​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
--
Arthur Richards
Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
Team Practices Group
<https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
[[User:Awjrichards]]
IRC: awjr
+1-415-839-6885 x6687
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
_______________________________________________
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https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
Kevin Smith
2016-08-16 15:20:02 UTC
Permalink
The Olympics, unlike most of the other types of mega-projects, have a hard
deadline. They can cut quality in some ways, but they can't run late.

So (presumably) 100% of Olympic projects have hit their date, and I doubt
any other type of mega-project is anywhere near that. (I wonder if ANY
other modern mega-projects have come in on time.) Presumably hitting that
date adds to the expenses, and especially to unplanned expenses as one
delay leads to another.



Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
Post by Joel Aufrecht
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-
is-a-terrible-investment/
Post by Grace Gellerman
Thanks, Joel!
For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
Post by Kevin Smith
I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
*international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
unpredictability, right?
The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <
Post by Arthur Richards
Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun
at the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)
​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
--
Arthur Richards
Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
Team Practices Group
<https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
[[User:Awjrichards]]
IRC: awjr
+1-415-839-6885 x6687
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
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https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
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Grace Gellerman
2016-08-16 20:10:34 UTC
Permalink
Apollo 11 had a hard deadline of the end of the decade. Not sure if the
1960s meets your definition of modern....
Post by Kevin Smith
The Olympics, unlike most of the other types of mega-projects, have a hard
deadline. They can cut quality in some ways, but they can't run late.
So (presumably) 100% of Olympic projects have hit their date, and I doubt
any other type of mega-project is anywhere near that. (I wonder if ANY
other modern mega-projects have come in on time.) Presumably hitting that
date adds to the expenses, and especially to unplanned expenses as one
delay leads to another.
Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
Post by Joel Aufrecht
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-
a-terrible-investment/
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 2:25 PM, Grace Gellerman <
Post by Grace Gellerman
Thanks, Joel!
For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
Post by Kevin Smith
I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
*international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
unpredictability, right?
The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <
Post by Arthur Richards
Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing
all other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average
overruns of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36
percent; rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107
percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun
at the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)
​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
--
Arthur Richards
Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
Team Practices Group
<https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
[[User:Awjrichards]]
IRC: awjr
+1-415-839-6885 x6687
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
_______________________________________________
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https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
_______________________________________________
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https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
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Kevin Smith
2016-08-16 20:30:17 UTC
Permalink
According to a NASA retrospective[1], if I'm reading it correctly, the
initial projected budget for Apollo was $2 billion, and the total spend was
$2 billion.

According to a different source[2], they had already spent $3 billion by
1963, and the total was something like $60-70 billion.

So either it was amazingly on-time and on-budget, despite requiring a ton
of *invention*, not just implementation. Or it was 3000% over budget, but
on time.

[1] http://www.history.nasa.gov/Apollomon/Apollo.html
[2] http://www.asi.org/adb/m/02/07/apollo-cost.html



Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
Post by Grace Gellerman
Apollo 11 had a hard deadline of the end of the decade. Not sure if the
1960s meets your definition of modern....
Post by Kevin Smith
The Olympics, unlike most of the other types of mega-projects, have a
hard deadline. They can cut quality in some ways, but they can't run late.
So (presumably) 100% of Olympic projects have hit their date, and I doubt
any other type of mega-project is anywhere near that. (I wonder if ANY
other modern mega-projects have come in on time.) Presumably hitting that
date adds to the expenses, and especially to unplanned expenses as one
delay leads to another.
Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
Post by Joel Aufrecht
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-
a-terrible-investment/
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 2:25 PM, Grace Gellerman <
Post by Grace Gellerman
Thanks, Joel!
For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
Post by Kevin Smith
I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
*international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
unpredictability, right?
The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <
Post by Arthur Richards
Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <
The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing
all other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average
overruns of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36
percent; rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107
percent.
(according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun
at the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
(source
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
)
​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only
sports-related costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure,
which are often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
--
Arthur Richards
Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
Team Practices Group
<https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
[[User:Awjrichards]]
IRC: awjr
+1-415-839-6885 x6687
_______________________________________________
teampractices mailing list
https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
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https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices
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